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TA: Bitcoin Breaks Key Support, Why BTC Could Extend Losses

Bitcoin failed to stay above the $46,000 support against the US Dollar. BTC is sliding and might even test the $43,200 support zone. Bitcoin is down over 4% and there was a move below the $46,000 support. The price is trading below $45,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was a break below a key breakout pattern with support near $46,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair could extend decline and test the $43,200 support zone in the near term. Bitcoin Price Dips Below Support Bitcoin price started a key decline after it struggled to stay above $46,500 and $46,400. BTC declined below the $46,000 support to move into a short-term bearish zone. There was a clear move below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the $44,470 swing low $48,200 high. The bears were able to push the price below the $45,500 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average. Besides, there was a break below a key breakout pattern with support near $46,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading below the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the $44,470 swing low $48,200 high. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com An immediate support on the downside is near the $44,450 level. The next major support is seen near the $44,000 level. The main support now sits near the $43,320 level. It is near the 1.236 Fib extension level of the upward wave from the $44,470 swing low $48,200 high. A downside break below the $43,320 support zone could send the price to $42,000 in the near term. Upsides Capped in BTC? If bitcoin remains stable above the $44,450 support level, it could attempt an upside correction. An immediate resistance on the upside is near the $45,500 level. The next major resistance is near the $45,800 level. The key hurdle is now forming near the $46,350 level (the previous breakdown zone), above which the price might rise steadily. In the stated case, it could test the $47,200 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is slowly gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now in the oversold region. Major Support Levels – $44,450, followed by $43,320. Major Resistance Levels – $45,500, $45,800 and $46,350.

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Possible Timelines For Bitcoin To Hit $100k: Why CEOs See Bullish Signs

After bitcoin broke above the $45k resistance level reaching the $48k mark, it has retested the $45k level. Some analysts still expect a rise to above $50k, others have abandoned their bullish approach. Meanwhile, leading CEOs from Pantera Capital and Skybridge Capital remain positive that the coin will reach the $100k mark in a period of one to two years. Bitcoin trading at $45,754 in the daily chart | BTCUSD on TradingView.com Pantera Capital CEO Is ‘Wildly Bullish’ In an interview with Yahoo Finance, the CEO of Pantera Capital Dan Morehead commented on Bitcoin’s price action so far in the year. Morehead noted that within the history of Bitcoin cycles, it’s had six previous bear markets that average about 60%, and 2022’s has been 50%. In his opinion, the bitcoin cycles will begin to moderate thanks to large institutional engagement, and “a 50% bear market is probably all you’re going to get going forward.” “I think we’re either at the lows or very close to it.” Morehead said he is “wildly bullish right now” because he believes that Bitcoin and the asset classes will decouple, noting that the high correlation that usually happens during periods of stress –similar to 2022’s turmoil– eventually breaks, usually after a 72-days average. “I think stocks and bonds may keep going down potentially for years, whereas blockchain assets can go up.“ Morehead accepted that Pantera Capital failed to predict how fear over the Fed’s rates rising would affect the crypto market, but believes that “in this case, the markets have it wrong, and blockchain will decouple from the other asset classes.” “If you think about it, with rates rising, that is mathematically negative for bonds. It also has a negative impact for anything else with discounted cash flows like equities or real estate, but blockchain’s totally independent of rates.” In his forecast, Morehead expects that six months from now bitcoin will be back to the typical 2.5X yearly growth that it’s been doing for 11 years. If so, then in a year Bitcoin could be worth about $100,000 per coin. Scaramucci Sees a $500k Bitcoin Similarly, in an interview with CNBC, the CEO of Skybridge Capital Anthony Scaramucchi predicted again that “Bitcoin will hit $100k in the next two years” based on adoption growth. Scaramucchi quotes Glassnode claiming that “there’s probably 245 million wallets out there or accounts related to Bitcoin,” while in October-November of 2020 there were about 85 million wallets. The CEO believes the growing adoption turns into people being more confident in the coin. “Somebody like Cathie Wood would say to you, a billion wallets, Bitcoin could easily trade to $500,000 a coin.” While Scaramucchi’s predictions from 2021 were not spot on, he accepts that he failed to anticipate the Russo-Ukrainian war and the elongation of COVID, but he sees no reason for Bitcoin not to hit the $100K mark within two years “given the way it’s scaling globally” and its many use cases. Related Reading | Wil..

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Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Eyes New ATH As Block Production Ramps Up

Bitcoin mining difficulty has been on the rise as the network has gained more popularity. This is a far cry from what was expected after China, which was known as the mining capital of the world at that point, had laid a blanket ban on crypto mining. Bitcoin miners had been able to successfully set up in other regions of the world and mining activities have ramped up since then. This time around, it comes along with the growth of blocks mined per hour which has smashed all expectations. Not only has the mining difficulty been affected by this but its effects are being felt all around the mining industry. Bitcoin Mining Difficulty At New ATH? Block production rates have risen higher than anticipated to beat the previous target of 6 blocks mined per hour. This number now stands at 6.2 blocks mined in an hour. This increase in block production has led to an increase in mining difficulty which has pushed it towards new all-time highs. Going forward, there is expected to be a 4-5% difficulty adjustment in mining difficulty. Related Reading | Cardano Turns Bullish In The Short-Term, But Is That All? If this happens, it will easily send the bitcoin mining difficulty towards a new all-time high. It continues to follow the growing trend that began in August of 2021 after the China ban had gone into effect. It would beat all expectations given that the China ban had seen the bitcoin hash rate crash 50% last year. BTC hash rate on the rise | Source: Arcane Research Miners Enjoy More Profitability The mining difficulty has not been the only thing affected by the increased block production rate. Other things like daily miner revenues have been on the rise. Bitcoin mines saw a 6.86% change in the last week ending on March 28th. This represents more than a $2 million increase over a seven-day period. Also important to note that the same daily revenues had been up 7% in the previous week. BTC declines to $45,000 | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com Daily transaction volumes also recorded an uptick in the same time period. It grew by a total of 11% touching $6.4 billion in transaction volume per day. It was a result of a recorded growth in the average transaction volume given that transaction volumes per day had only grown 1.5%. The average transaction volume was up 9% in the seven days this data was collated. Related Reading | SushiSwap Kicks Off Climb, Why This 40% Rally Is Just Getting Heated Transaction fees saw the highest growth for the week. Given that there is now more demand for block space, transaction fees had been on a steady climb since then. Daily transaction fees grew 20% and are now sitting at $460,000 per day. Featured image from Investopedia, chart from TradingView.com

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Five Bitcoin Price Charts Analyzing The Dramatic Q1 2022 Conclusion

There are only hours remaining until the Q1 2022 close in Bitcoin price action. With the important quarterly candle set to close tonight, let’s look at what technicals might say about the direction of the next quarter. Q1 2022 Comes To A Close For Bitcoin The first quarter of a year, often sets the tone for the year to come. In investments, a poor Q1 performance is indicative of a bad year ahead. Considering the fact that Bitcoin price is now above $45,000 after touching $32,000 this quarter, it is tough to say the performance has been “poor” by anything other than crypto standards. Related Reading | Bitcoin Weekly Momentum Flips Bullish For First Time In 2022 The cryptocurrency has recovered nearly 40% from the low, leaving a long wick behind. Such a long wick suggests that before the quarter came to a close, buyers stepped up in a major way. Buyers were able to step up in a larger capacity in Q1 2022 than bears were able to in the final quarter of last year. The bearish wick to close 2021 only just made it over 30% by comparison. The quarterly RSI bounced off the moving average | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com By those standards, bulls might still have the upper hand. It also helps that unlike past bear markets, the quarterly Relative Strength Index was able to hold above the RSI-based moving average. A full year Bitcoin has held above these lines | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com Additional comparison with past bear markets using the Ichimoku show that after each major cycle peak, both the conversion line and base line were immediately lost during the next opening quarterly candle. Bitcoin price holding above these important indicator lines for a full year should confirm it has strong support. It also spent a year above the middle-band above | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com Donchian channels, which act as an envelope around price action, also demonstrate similar bullish behavior compared to previous cycles. Even the 2019 stopped precisely at the middle band. The past several quarters were able to hold above the key level. Price action is above the Super Guppy bands | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com The quarterly Super Guppy suggests that Bitcoin price wicked into the several layers of support, and was able to hold above the highest most line. The retest-type situation could lead to a push higher. Has Bitcoin bottomed? CMF might suggest it has | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com Holders hoping for a bottom might have already witnessed the worst. The quarterly Chaikin Money Flow reached a low at nearly the same extreme as the 2018 bear market bottom. Bitcoin price plunged 50% after already falling from $20,000 to $6,000 causing widespread capitulation across the crypto market. Related Reading | This Bitcoin “Heatmap” Suggests A Blazing Cycle Peak Is Still Ahead Similar capitulation might have been achieved across two large peaks and more than 50% corrections each, at a slower grind than past corrective phases. Considering thi..

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Data Shows Bitcoin Investors Afraid To Take Risk As Leverage Remains Low

On-chain data shows Bitcoin investors have been afraid to take risk recently as the leverage ratio has remained low in the last few days. Bitcoin Leverage Ratio Remains Low In Past Few Days As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, investors haven’t taken much risk since the surge in the crypto’s price a few days back as leverage in the market is low at the moment. A relevant indicator here is the “open interest,” which shows the total amount of Bitcoin futures contracts currently open on all derivatives exchanges. The “estimated leverage ratio” is a metric that’s defined as the ratio between this open interest and the total amount of coins present on all derivatives exchanges (exchange reserve). What this ratio tells us is the average amount of leverage that each Bitcoin futures investor is currently making use of. When the value of the indicator is high, it means users are taking on a lot of risk right now. Such values can result in higher price volatility. Related Reading | Glassnode’s RHODL Ratio May Suggest Bitcoin Market Is Near Capitulation On the other hand, low values of the ratio indicate investors aren’t using much leverage currently as they look to avoid risk. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin leverage ratio over the past few days: Looks like the value of the metric is low at the moment | Source: CryptoQuant As you can see in the above graph, the Bitcoin leverage ratio had a high value a few days back, but the sharp uptrend in the crypto’s price brought it back down as it liquidated shorts. Since then, the indicator’s value has remained at these low levels. The open interest, on the other hand, is still at a high value, implying investors have still been opening new positions in the market. Related Reading | Time To Be Fearful? Bitcoin Index Reaches Greediest Point Since Peak These new positions, however, have low average leverage attached to them as the ratio suggests. This shows that investors have been unsure about the crypto recently, opting to take less risk. The chart also shows the curve for the funding rates, an indicator that tells us about the ratio of longs and shorts in the market. Currently, the metric seems to be positive, which means there are more long positions in the market. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $47k, up 10% in the past week. The below chart shows the trend in the price of the coin over the last five days. BTC's price seems to have moved sideways in the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

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TA: Why Bitcoin Could Start Fresh Increase and Revisit $50K

Bitcoin is consolidating below the $48,000 resistance against the US Dollar. BTC could start a fresh rally if it clears the $48,000 resistance zone. Bitcoin is stable above the $47,000 and $46,800 support levels. The price is trading above $46,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a major breakout pattern forming with resistance near $47,700 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair could start a fresh increase if it manages to clear the $48,000 resistance zone. Bitcoin Price Eyes Fresh Increase Bitcoin price started a minor downside correction after it failed near the $48,200 level. BTC corrected lower and traded below the $47,800 support level. There was a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $44,469 swing low $48,200 high. The price even moved below the $47,000 level, but the bulls were active near the $46,800 and $46,500 levels. Bitcoin is now trading above $46,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. On the upside, the price is facing resistance near the $47,600 level. There is also a major breakout pattern forming with resistance near $47,700 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The next major resistance could be near the $48,000 zone. A successful break and close above the triangle resistance and then $48,000 could start a strong increase. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com The next major hurdle on the upside might be near the $49,200 level. Any more gains could send the price towards the key the $50,000 level. Dips Limited in BTC? If bitcoin fails to clear the $47,700 resistance zone, it could correct further lower. An immediate support on the downside is near the $47,000 zone. The next major support is seen near the $46,800 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. The main support now sits near the $46,400 level. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $44,469 swing low $48,200 high. A downside break below the $46,400 support zone could send the price to $45,000 in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is slowly gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now just above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $46,800, followed by $46,400. Major Resistance Levels – $47,700, $48,000 and $48,200.

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Broader Market Celebrates Bitcoin Breakout, But What About Perp Traders?

Bitcoin perpetual traders seem to be the only ones unmoved by the digital asset’s recent breakout. BTC which has had a tremendous rally during the first half of the week had been able to break out of the slump of the low $40,000s and moved on an upward trajectory above $47,500. However, perp traders have not reacted much to it given the state of the funding rates. Funding Rates Remain Flat The bitcoin perpetual traders are not reacting to the recent upside as expected. This is evidenced in the fact that the perp basis is still sitting at or even below neutral funding rates, marking the 115th consecutive day that this has remained the case. This speaks volumes to how perp traders are viewing the market. Regardless of the bitcoin price increase, they have not increased their activity in any significant way. BTC funding rates remain neutral amid price growth | Source: Arcane Research It could easily mean that perp traders are not convinced by the recent price movement. As with the previous uptrends recorded this year, it could mean that perp traders are expecting the digital asset to go the same way. However, this uptrend has differed from its predecessors given the fact that it has broken above the $45,000 resistance point and possesses the potential to climb towards $50K. Related Reading | Here Are The Projects Pushing Cardano’s Price To The Upside Funding rates have refused to be moved, however. Even going as far as falling below the neutral funding rate. This follows the trend for the year so far, given that there have been no positive funding rates recorded in 2022. The decline in funding rates can be attributed to long traders closing their positions, which have caused perpetual prices to either align or continue to trail behind spot prices. Bitcoin Open Interest Declines Funding rates are not the only metric that shows perp traders remain uninterested in the uptrend. Open interest in perpetual has also declined recently. In the space of less than a week, it had fallen from 256K BTC to 245K BTC. One explanation for this could be the short liquidations that have rocked the market since bitcoin began this recovery. BTC maintaining momentum above $47,000 | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com The USDT collateralized BTC perp on Binance is known to be the largest perp instrumental. This instrument had recorded a new all-time high recently as open interest had gone up. It was swiftly followed by both neural/low funding rates and even long-short ratios below 1. All of this is to say that there is the possibility of crowding on the short side. Related Reading | Ethereum “Diamond Hands” Filled Their Bigs Through The Dip An implication of this, notes Arcane Research, would be a suggestion that leverage in the crypto market remains “relatively lofty.” However, this comes with some negative sentiments. Together, this “could be a potent setup for a short squeeze if the strong momentum holds” the report reads. Featured image from CoinDesk, charts fro..

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Time To Be Fearful? Bitcoin Index Reaches Greediest Point Since Peak

Data shows the Bitcoin fear and greed index has now reached the highest level since the peak in November as the price of the crypto rallies up. Bitcoin Fear And Greed Index Now Points At “Greed” As per the latest weekly report from Arcane Research, the BTC fear and greed index has surged to values of greed sentiment this week. The “fear and greed index” is an indicator that tells us about the current general market sentiment among Bitcoin investors. The metric uses a numeric scale that travels from one to hundred for representing this sentiment. All values above fifty signify that investors are greedy at the moment. While those below the cutoff suggest a fearful market. Values above 75 and below 25, that is, the values toward the ends of the range, represent extreme greed and extreme fear, respectively. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin fear and greed index over the past year: Looks like the value of the indicator has surged up recently | Source: Arcane Research's The Weekly Update - Week 12, 2022 As you can see in the above graph, the Bitcoin fear and greed index has sharply risen over the past week. The indicator now has a value of 56, which shows the market is getting greedy. This value of the metric is now more than in any other period in the year 2022 so far, and is the highest since the peak in early November of last year. Related Reading | Glassnode’s RHODL Ratio May Suggest Bitcoin Market Is Near Capitulation Historically, Bitcoin peaks have tended to happen while the sentiment is that of extreme greed, and bottoms have formed during periods of extreme fear. There is a popular trading technique called “contrarian investing” that makes use of this fact. Traders following this methodology think that the best time to buy is during extreme fear, while extreme greed is when one should sell. Related Reading | Bitcoin Weekly Momentum Flips Bullish For First Time In 2022: What Data Says This famous quote by Warren Buffet sums up this philosophy: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” So, following the line of thinking of contrarian investors, the current market sentiment turning greedy may be a sign that you should now start getting fearful instead. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $47.3k, up 12% in the last seven days. Over the past month, the crypto has gained 26% in value. The below chart shows the trend in the price of the coin over the last five days. The price of Bitcoin seems to have surged up over the past few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Arcane Research

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Here’s The Biggest Hindrance To Bitcoin Touching Above $50,000

Bitcoin had successfully flipped the $47,000 level this week. A welcome change after the digital asset had spent a long stretch of time plagued by low momentum. It officially signaled a break out of the consolidation of the past two-and-a-half months. Now the real work begins as bears have begun mounting significant resistance to keep the cryptocurrency from breaking above $50,000. The Point To Beat Although Bitcoin continues to hold above $47,000, there is still a lot of opposition to the digital asset in this region. $47,500 remains a technical level that has shown itself throughout various rallies in history. This time around, bears are camping at this technical level, making it a significant resistance to point to beat. Otherwise, the goal of $50,000 will remain unrealized. Related Reading | Small Cap Altcoins Beat Bitcoin And Other Crypto Assets 10 To 1, But Why? If the digital asset is able to successfully beat this point and form support above it, then there will be not much opposition in the race to $50,000 as the next important point will lie above this level. A push past $50,000 would set the cryptocurrency on another path towards $53,000. This time around, solidifying BTC’s campaign towards a new all-time high. $47,500 is now the point to beat | Source: Arcane Research Nevertheless, Bitcoin has been unable to break through as its single attempt to do so has been met with resistance that has beaten it back down towards the low $47,000s. BTC continues to hold strong at this point though. Bitcoin Holding Up Well Even though bitcoin had taken a beat-down after testing the $47,500 resistance point, it has quickly found its footing. One important thing to note is where the digital asset looks to have formed an important support level. BTC fails to beat $47,500 resistance level | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com Arcane Research notes that BTC looks to have flipped $45,000, which was the resistance to beat in the early innings of the rally, into a support level. This means a slide below $47,000 may see the digital asset fall below $46,000 but will most likely find significant support at this $45K level. Although a fall below this will quickly send BTC back to the low $42,000s given it is more akin to a sliding scale. Related Reading | TA: Ethereum Losing Pace, What Could Trigger Another Increase Bitcoin is now comfortably trading above the 50-day and 200-day moving average, cementing both a short and long-term bullish outlook for the asset. It continues to hold firm as it is trading at $47,300 at the time of this writing. Featured image from Coingape, charts from Arcane Research and TradingView.com

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Quant Explains How Stablecoin Ratio Can Give Bitcoin Buy Or Sell Signals

A quant has explained how the data of the stablecoin supply ratio (SSR) may be used to find Bitcoin buy or sell signals. Stablecoin Supply Ratio May Be Able To Predict Bitcoin Buy And Sell Signals As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the stablecoin supply ratio may help us find BTC buy or sell signals. The “stablecoin supply ratio” (or SSR in short) is an indicator that measures the ratio between the market cap of Bitcoin and that of all stablecoins. In simpler terms, what this metric tells us is how the supply of the stablecoins compare with that of BTC. Investors usually use these fiat-tied coins when they want to escape volatile markets and hold on until the price reaches a viable reentry point. So, in a way stablecoins represent potential dry powder for Bitcoin. When the value of the SSR is high, it means the supply of BTC is much higher than stablecoins right now. This means that there is lesser potential buying power available in the market and hence could be bearish for the price of the crypto. On the other hand, low values of the ratio implies there is a decent amount of buying power available in the form of stablecoins at the moment. Naturally, this can be bullish for the value of BTC. Related Reading | Bitcoin Bullish Signal: Exchange Reserve Loses Another 50k BTC Over Past Week Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the stablecoins supply ratio over the past 2 years: The correlation between BTC price and the ratio | Source: CryptoQuant In the above chart, the quant has marked the relevant regions of trend in the SSR RSI (a modified version of the indicator). The analyst notes that whenever the value of this metric has been below 25, it has usually been a good buying point for Bitcoin. Related Reading | Small Cap Altcoins Continue To March Ahead Of Bitcoin And Ether Gains On the other hand, values above 70 seem to have indicated a sell signal instead. A couple months back, the metric showed a buy signal, and has since been making its way up. If past trend is anything to go by, the price of the crypto may surge up now and the indicator will show a sell signal near the top. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $43k, up 5% in the last seven days. Over the past month, the crypto has gained 15% in value. The below chart shows the trend in the price of the coin over the last five days. BTC's price seems to have surged up over the last couple of days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

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